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The Woolly Worm’s Winter Forecast: Folklore, Science, or both?

by SUSAN LINTON
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October 21, 2026
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As nature prepares for the magical transition to fall with autumn colors, one of the many tales that mark the seasonal shift is the legend of the woolly worm, scientifically known as the Pyrrharctia Isabella or the Isabella tiger moth caterpillar.

As temperatures cool, the woolly worms emerge and begin their journey–seemingly searching for a place to hibernate–signaling the change of the season. These fuzzy creatures have distinctive markings; their black and brown bands have captivated imaginations for generations.

According to folklore, the caterpillar holds the secret to predicting the upcoming winter ahead. The blacker bands that it has, the harsher the winter will be, and the browner bands indicate a milder winter.

This folk belief has been passed down from generation to generation. There’s even a Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina, this year marking the 49th held annually on the third Saturday in October. There’s a woolly worm race during the festival, and the winning woolly worm gets the esteemed honor of predicting the weather for the High Country’s winter!

Although the belief of the woolly worm prediction varies among individuals, it’s a lighthearted tradition rather than a scientifically reliable forecast.

Have you spotted a woolly worm yet? I shared my photo taken at Organ Cave. According to the woolly worm in my backyard, it will be a mild winter. Time will tell!

Keep an eye out for the woolly worms’ appearance, because in their delicate crawl lies a tale waiting to be discovered by those who seek the mystery of nature’s secrets.

 

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SUSAN LINTON

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